If you’re on Social Security, here’s some news you’ll want to know: your monthly benefits are expected to go up by 2.4% in 2026. That’s a smaller bump than in recent years, and some folks are worried it might not be enough to keep up with everyday costs.
Let’s unpack what this means and how it might affect you.
What’s the COLA 2026 Forecast?
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan advocacy group, now projects a 2.4% Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026. That’s slightly higher than their earlier guess of 2.3%.
This number is based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Over the past year, prices rose 2.1%—a big drop compared to the jumps we saw a couple of years ago.
| Year | COLA (%) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.3 |
| 2022 | 5.9 |
| 2023 | 8.7 |
| 2024 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 2.5 |
| 2026 | 2.4 (estimated) |
Why Is the COLA So Modest?
There are a few reasons why the 2026 COLA is looking smaller:
- Slower Inflation: Prices aren’t rising as fast as they were during the pandemic rebound, so there’s less need for a big boost.
- Drug Prices: Some recent government efforts aim to cut prescription drug costs. While that’s great news for your wallet, it also affects the overall inflation calculation.
- Economic Factors: Things like tariffs and policy changes can also affect the cost of living—and therefore the COLA.
When Will the COLA Be Official?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) usually announces the official COLA in October. They’ll use the average inflation data from July, August, and September of 2025 to set the final rate. That means you’ll know for sure this fall.
How Will It Affect You?
For many seniors, Social Security is a lifeline. About 73% rely on it for at least half of their income, and nearly 40% depend on it completely. Even though a 2.4% increase is better than nothing, some are worried it won’t be enough to cover the rising costs of food, housing, and medical care.
If you’re in that boat, it’s important to budget carefully and stay informed.
Conclusion
The projected 2.4% COLA for 2026 reflects a slower pace of inflation compared to recent years. While it signals some economic stability, many seniors worry that it won’t stretch far enough to cover all their expenses.
Keep an eye out for the official announcement in October 2025 so you can plan your budget accordingly.
FAQ’s
Q1: What is COLA?
It’s the yearly adjustment in Social Security benefits to keep up with inflation.
Q2: Why is the 2026 COLA lower than in recent years?
Because prices aren’t rising as fast as they were before, the inflation index (CPI-W) is showing a smaller increase.
Q3: When does the new COLA start?
You’ll see the increase in your January 2026 Social Security payment.
